More load of crap

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More load of crap

Postby Phillip Phlopp » May 16th, 2018, 12:08 pm

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Record numbers employed in the UK! Huzzah! Sunny uplands are here already! Boo to Brexit doom mongers!

But wait! Who are included in these record breaking employment numbers?

People working more than one hour a week. Unpaid family work.

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But <splutter> but wages are rising faster than inflation! More money to spend!

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Yep. By 0.2%.

.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby maximus » May 16th, 2018, 12:20 pm

And, as I asked Frank (but received no answer) what about productivity?

Still, it's nice to know Miles's four hours a week lifeguarding at the local pool/health club are making the employment figures more excusable.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby turnipsock » May 16th, 2018, 12:40 pm

I can't see how? Carrilion no more, RBS Branches no more and BT getting rid of loads of people.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby Phillip Phlopp » May 16th, 2018, 1:04 pm

turnipsock wrote:I can't see how? Carrilion no more, RBS Branches no more and BT getting rid of loads of people.


Ah, a new song for The Proclaimers... A Letter From Britain.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby Phillip Phlopp » May 16th, 2018, 1:23 pm

Arithmetic ain't my strongest point but if the average salary is £27k pa a 2.8% pay rise gives an extra £800pa. Meanwhile, inflation is eroding that increase by 2.6% leaving a 0.2% rise in real terms or, £1.60pa. Enough for two copies of the Mail and 30p change.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby Phillip Phlopp » May 16th, 2018, 1:31 pm

^^^^That might well be crap as well. Not just The Mail but my workings out.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby Frank Coe » May 16th, 2018, 1:55 pm

maximus wrote:And, as I asked Frank (but received no answer) what about productivity?

Still, it's nice to know Miles's four hours a week lifeguarding at the local pool/health club are making the employment figures more excusable.


PP answered it for you Max, more automation less cheap labour.
PP also mentioned GDP.
Example; my local Waitrose has an automatic car wash and also a gang of Eastern European hand washers, (the auto wash is going derelict).
Auto wash = more productivity.
EE hand wash = more GDP
Conundrum or what?
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Re: More load of crap

Postby maximus » May 16th, 2018, 2:03 pm

Frank Coe wrote:
maximus wrote:And, as I asked Frank (but received no answer) what about productivity?

Still, it's nice to know Miles's four hours a week lifeguarding at the local pool/health club are making the employment figures more excusable.


PP answered it for you Max, more automation less cheap labour.
PP also mentioned GDP.
Example; my local Waitrose has an automatic car wash and also a gang of Eastern European hand washers, (the auto wash is going derelict).
Auto wash = more productivity.
EE hand wash = more GDP
Conundrum or what?


So you disagree with The Mail that the unemployment figures are positive? That's the real conundrum.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby Frank Coe » May 16th, 2018, 4:31 pm

maximus wrote:
Frank Coe wrote:
maximus wrote:And, as I asked Frank (but received no answer) what about productivity?

Still, it's nice to know Miles's four hours a week lifeguarding at the local pool/health club are making the employment figures more excusable.


PP answered it for you Max, more automation less cheap labour.
PP also mentioned GDP.
Example; my local Waitrose has an automatic car wash and also a gang of Eastern European hand washers, (the auto wash is going derelict).
Auto wash = more productivity.
EE hand wash = more GDP
Conundrum or what?


So you disagree with The Mail that the unemployment figures are positive? That's the real conundrum.


No idea what you are on about Max, as Mrs M told Jerry at PMQs today the rise in employment was mostly full time jobs and higher paid skilled jobs.

"The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was 75.6%, higher than for a year earlier (74.8%) and the highest since comparable records began in 1971.
There were 1.42 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 46,000 fewer than for October to December 2017 and 116,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
The unemployment rate (the proportion of people in work plus unemployed people, who were unemployed) was 4.2%, down from 4.6% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.
There were 8.66 million people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 115,000 fewer than for October to December 2017 and 171,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive) was 21.0%, lower than for a year earlier (21.5%) and the lowest since comparable records began in 1971.
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.9% excluding bonuses, and by 2.6% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.4% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."

Sounds positive to me, what say the doom-sayers? <lol>
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Re: More load of crap

Postby Phillip Phlopp » May 16th, 2018, 4:40 pm

It shows that wages have stagnated for eight years.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby maximus » May 16th, 2018, 4:55 pm

Frank Coe wrote:
maximus wrote:
Frank Coe wrote:
maximus wrote:And, as I asked Frank (but received no answer) what about productivity?

Still, it's nice to know Miles's four hours a week lifeguarding at the local pool/health club are making the employment figures more excusable.


PP answered it for you Max, more automation less cheap labour.
PP also mentioned GDP.
Example; my local Waitrose has an automatic car wash and also a gang of Eastern European hand washers, (the auto wash is going derelict).
Auto wash = more productivity.
EE hand wash = more GDP
Conundrum or what?


So you disagree with The Mail that the unemployment figures are positive? That's the real conundrum.


No idea what you are on about Max, as Mrs M told Jerry at PMQs today the rise in employment was mostly full time jobs and higher paid skilled jobs.

"The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was 75.6%, higher than for a year earlier (74.8%) and the highest since comparable records began in 1971.
There were 1.42 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 46,000 fewer than for October to December 2017 and 116,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
The unemployment rate (the proportion of people in work plus unemployed people, who were unemployed) was 4.2%, down from 4.6% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.
There were 8.66 million people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 115,000 fewer than for October to December 2017 and 171,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive) was 21.0%, lower than for a year earlier (21.5%) and the lowest since comparable records began in 1971.
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.9% excluding bonuses, and by 2.6% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.4% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."

Sounds positive to me, what say the doom-sayers? <lol>


No, Frank, you made a good case for automation and an increase in productivity.

The problem is that, as you say, you can't have both high employment and high technological productivity.

But rising employment and almost stagnant output resulted in a fresh setback to productivity after a rise in the second half of 2017. Output per hour worked fell by 0.5% in the first three months of 2018 and has increased by just 0.2% a year since the financial crisis of 2008.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby Frank Coe » May 16th, 2018, 5:37 pm

maximus wrote:
Frank Coe wrote:
maximus wrote:
Frank Coe wrote:
maximus wrote:And, as I asked Frank (but received no answer) what about productivity?

Still, it's nice to know Miles's four hours a week lifeguarding at the local pool/health club are making the employment figures more excusable.


PP answered it for you Max, more automation less cheap labour.
PP also mentioned GDP.
Example; my local Waitrose has an automatic car wash and also a gang of Eastern European hand washers, (the auto wash is going derelict).
Auto wash = more productivity.
EE hand wash = more GDP
Conundrum or what?


So you disagree with The Mail that the unemployment figures are positive? That's the real conundrum.


No idea what you are on about Max, as Mrs M told Jerry at PMQs today the rise in employment was mostly full time jobs and higher paid skilled jobs.

"The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was 75.6%, higher than for a year earlier (74.8%) and the highest since comparable records began in 1971.
There were 1.42 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 46,000 fewer than for October to December 2017 and 116,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
The unemployment rate (the proportion of people in work plus unemployed people, who were unemployed) was 4.2%, down from 4.6% for a year earlier and the joint lowest since 1975.
There were 8.66 million people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work), 115,000 fewer than for October to December 2017 and 171,000 fewer than for a year earlier.
The inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive) was 21.0%, lower than for a year earlier (21.5%) and the lowest since comparable records began in 1971.
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.9% excluding bonuses, and by 2.6% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.
Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 0.4% excluding bonuses, but were unchanged including bonuses, compared with a year earlier."

Sounds positive to me, what say the doom-sayers? <lol>


No, Frank, you made a good case for automation and an increase in productivity.

The problem is that, as you say, you can't have both high employment and high technological productivity.

But rising employment and almost stagnant output resulted in a fresh setback to productivity after a rise in the second half of 2017. Output per hour worked fell by 0.5% in the first three months of 2018 and has increased by just 0.2% a year since the financial crisis of 2008.


You’re confused Max, where did I say that? It’s quite possible to have near full employment with high levels of automation, fewer people and fewer hours worked for example.
Did you notice fewer immigrants are already driving wages up?
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Re: More load of crap

Postby maximus » May 16th, 2018, 6:26 pm

You ‘said it’ in your delightful car wash section.

I don’t disagree we ‘could’ have high productivity and high employment but we don’t. In the current economy of underinvestment that’s not possible - there’s your conundrum.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby Frank Coe » May 16th, 2018, 7:07 pm

maximus wrote:You ‘said it’ in your delightful car wash section.

I don’t disagree we ‘could’ have high productivity and high employment but we don’t. In the current economy of underinvestment that’s not possible - there’s your conundrum.


You are confused Max.

Auto wash = more productivity.
EE hand wash = more GDP


GDP is not driven by the amount of employment but just by numbers of people, more people = more economic activity whether they are working or not.

Automation = more productivity = more GDP "per capita" = higher living standards
Last edited by Frank Coe on May 16th, 2018, 7:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby Frank Coe » May 16th, 2018, 7:09 pm

Phillip Phlopp wrote:It shows that wages have stagnated for eight years.


Naught to do with Brexit then?
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Re: More load of crap

Postby turnipsock » May 16th, 2018, 8:52 pm

Isn't income tax coming down?
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Re: More load of crap

Postby maximus » May 16th, 2018, 9:01 pm

Frank Coe wrote:
maximus wrote:You ‘said it’ in your delightful car wash section.

I don’t disagree we ‘could’ have high productivity and high employment but we don’t. In the current economy of underinvestment that’s not possible - there’s your conundrum.


You are confused Max.

Auto wash = more productivity.
EE hand wash = more GDP


GDP is not driven by the amount of employment but just by numbers of people, more people = more economic activity whether they are working or not.

Automation = more productivity = more GDP "per capita" = higher living standards


GDP? I was talking about the productivity.

Besides which, I thought you didn’t like GDP - I’ll dig out your post when I get time.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby Frank Coe » May 17th, 2018, 6:46 am

maximus wrote:
Frank Coe wrote:
maximus wrote:You ‘said it’ in your delightful car wash section.

I don’t disagree we ‘could’ have high productivity and high employment but we don’t. In the current economy of underinvestment that’s not possible - there’s your conundrum.


You are confused Max.

Auto wash = more productivity.
EE hand wash = more GDP


GDP is not driven by the amount of employment but just by numbers of people, more people = more economic activity whether they are working or not.

Automation = more productivity = more GDP "per capita" = higher living standards


GDP? I was talking about the productivity.

Besides which, I thought you didn’t like GDP - I’ll dig out your post when I get time.


Correct.

List of countries by GDP (nominal)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... P_(nominal)

List of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita
https://tinyurl.com/l4zdx28
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... y_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

Check out China for a comparison.

Btw, you were talking about employment, basically taking a Luddite position.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby maximus » May 17th, 2018, 7:11 am

Not at all.

The claim of Booming Britain was made by the DM and then by the PM and then by you

The evidence for this are the employment figures.

What wasn’t pointed out was that productivity remains low and, as you rightly pointed out, that is partly a result of a low-wage, low investment economy.

That will eventually catch up with us, particularly if we cut off the supply of cheap and flexible labour.

It’s one of the more sensible arguments against mass immigration but is as much about lack of investment as immigration.
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Re: More load of crap

Postby Phillip Phlopp » May 17th, 2018, 7:52 am

Frank Coe wrote:
Phillip Phlopp wrote:It shows that wages have stagnated for eight years.


Naught to do with Brexit then?



The DM claims that Brexit Britain's Booming. We haven't Brexited yet.

You and I are of the same generation when employment meant a 40-hour week. It can now mean anything. The employment of yesteryear usually meant a wage that supported a family but now many people rely on the state to top up their income.

How many of these jobs provide a true living wage? Most jobs in retail (one of the biggest job sectors in the country) offer 'flexible' contracts where the employee is guaranteed around 20 hours a week and it's fingers crossed whether there will be more hours on offer and the hourly rate is around minimum wage levels.
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